LCL vs Air Freight for FBA Restocks from China: The Break-Even Math for Amazon Sellers
Sea LCL from China to a US FBA warehouse runs 22–28 days on the water; air runs 5–8 days door to FC. The price gap between them is not constant — it depends on your chargeable weight, your sell-through rate and what a stockout actually costs you. Here is how to run the numbers.
Start with chargeable weight, not carton count
Ocean LCL prices off CBM; air freight prices off chargeable weight — the greater of actual weight and volumetric weight (roughly 167 kg per CBM). Light, bulky cartons make air disproportionately expensive; dense, heavy cartons narrow the gap. Before comparing rates, know your shipment's CBM and its air chargeable weight.
The stockout side of the equation
The real cost of ocean's extra 15–20 days is inventory risk. If your SKU sells 40 units a day and your stock cover is 30 days, waiting for LCL means you restock a cycle earlier — or eat a stockout. A stockout costs more than lost sales: organic ranking drops, and ad spend re-launching a recovered listing is real money.
A practical rule: ship ocean for the baseline forecast, and reserve air for the gap between your forecast error and your stockout date.
When each mode wins
Neither mode is a strategy on its own. The sellers with the lowest total logistics cost run ocean as the default and air as the exception, triggered by a stockout forecast — not by panic.
- Ocean LCL wins: steady sellers, heavy/dense cartons, restocks planned 6+ weeks ahead
- Air wins: new launches, Q4 top-ups, high-value small items, stockout recovery
- Express wins: under ~100 kg and truly urgent — samples, replacement labels, emergency stock
A hybrid pattern that works
Send 70–80% of a restock by LCL and 20–30% by air in the same week. The air portion keeps the listing alive while the ocean portion rebuilds margin. Most Amazon SEND Partnered Carriers, including Linktrans, can quote both modes against the same inbound plan so the split is one booking, not two.
Compare both modes on your actual cartons at us.link-trans.com/quote.